Despite the growing enthusiasm over 5G networks in Japan, network coverage remains very limited in the country compared with other global technology leaders, such as South Korea, China, and the United States. For example, South Korea has already achieved 90% 5G population coverage since commercial service started in April 2019 and is on track to have nearly 20% of mobile users on a 5G network by the end of the year. Chinese telcos are targeting 50% population coverage by the end of the year, while in the US, Verizon has announced that its network already covers 200 million people. As seen in the exhibit below, in Japan, coverage is currently limited to only the largest cities, such as Tokyo, Osaka, Nagoya, and a few others. The recent announcement of the iPhone 12 will increase enthusiasm for 5G in the market, but recent regulatory suggestions by the government may further inhibit the development of 5G in Japan.
5G Deployment Plan Update
The three major Japanese telcos are planning to catch up with other countries in the near future, and the deployment plans per operator following their commercial launches in March 2020, in addition to the launch of 5G by challenger Rakuten Mobile, are as follows:
NTT Docomo – NTT Docomo is expecting to have 2.5 million 5G subscribers by the end of its FY2020, which would only represent 3% of its 80 million 3G and 4G subscribers. NTT Docomo is expecting to cover 500 cities, including all those designated by the government, by the end of FY2020. NTT’s most recent estimates for base station coverage are 10,000 by June 2021 and 20,000 by March 2022.
KDDI – KDDI has not yet announced 5G subscribers, but in terms of coverage, the company is planning to have 10,000 5G base stations deployed by March 2021 and 50,000 deployed by March 2022. The company will share its network in rural areas with rival SoftBank to achieve greater coverage in a cost-effective manner.
SoftBank – SoftBank also claims that it will have 10,000 5G base stations deployed by March 2021 and 50,000 deployed by March 2022, which makes sense given that it will be sharing its network with KDDI. The company claims that this will give them over 90% population coverage at this time. The company also predicts that by the end of FY2023, 60% of its 30 million smartphone users will be using 5G service.
Rakuten Mobile – Rakuten Mobile has also launched 5G service, doing so commercially in September 2020, shortly following the launch of its 4G network in April earlier this year. Rakuten’s 5G network has the least coverage now as it only covers parts of Tokyo, Kanagawa, Saitama, Hokkaido, Osaka, and Hyogo. The company plans to have some 5G coverage in all 47 of Japan’s prefectures by March of 2021.
